When Washington announces it’s reopening a trade deal, it usually sounds like background noise—a bureaucratic shuffle too far removed from daily life to matter. But the renegotiation of the U.S.–Mexico–Canada Agreement (USMCA) is not abstract. This deal sets the terms for nearly $1.6 trillion in annual trade flows. It governs the rules that decide where factories are built, how wages compete across borders, and even what our groceries and cars cost. For Black workers, families, and small businesses, those stakes are immediate.

The Review That Could Reset the Rules

The Trump administration has initiated the first official review of the USMCA, three years ahead of schedule. Canada and Mexico are our top trading partners, together making up about 30% of all U.S. trade. This review will determine whether key provisions—like wage floors in auto manufacturing, labor enforcement in Mexico, and tariff-free flows of everyday goods—are strengthened, weakened, or reshaped altogether.

Why Black Jobs Are on the Front Line

Black workers are disproportionately concentrated in industries tied to USMCA. In transportation and warehousing, we represent 22.5% of the workforce, nearly double our share of the overall labor force (BLS, 2025). That means when cross-border trucking slows, when warehousing contracts, or when tariffs reroute supply chains, Black employment is directly affected.

In manufacturing, the deal’s “75% regional content” rule and “40–45% labor value content” rule require that a large share of cars and trucks be built in North America, with significant portions made by workers earning at least $16/hour. These rules aren’t just technical—they are wage protections that guard against a race to the bottom. If renegotiation loosens them, U.S. plants with strong Black workforces could lose bargaining power.

The agreement also introduced the Rapid Response Labor Mechanism (RRM), which has already forced dozens of Mexican factories to reinstate workers, repay lost wages, and recognize independent unions. More than 40,000 workers have seen real gains from these actions. By narrowing wage gaps abroad, U.S. plants—like those in Detroit, where Black auto employment is significant—avoid being undercut. A weaker enforcement system in the next deal would erode this protection.

Cost of Living: The Hidden Tariff Tax

Trade rules don’t just set wages—they also set prices. Economists have found that tariffs function as a near-direct tax on consumers, with costs passed almost entirely into prices (Fed, 2025).

For food, the connection is obvious. Mexico supplies 63% of vegetables and nearly half of fruits and nuts imported into the U.S. Tomatoes, peppers, cucumbers, avocados, and berries are staples in our carts. If tariffs rise on Mexican produce, grocery bills go up immediately. For Black households, who already devote a higher share of income to necessities, this inflation lands hardest.

For cars, the pressure is layered. USMCA’s content rules already increased compliance costs, leading some automakers to simply pay tariffs instead of qualifying. The share of vehicles from Mexico and Canada subject to tariffs rose from 4% in 2019 to 16% in 2023 (USITC). New tariffs added in 2025 push those costs higher. On the ground, this means more expensive new cars, pricier used cars, and higher insurance and loan payments—costs that Black borrowers already face at disproportionate rates.

Black Entrepreneurs and Opportunity Windows

Beyond jobs and costs, USMCA holds potential for Black-owned firms. Minority-owned businesses are twice as likely to export as white-owned peers (MBDA). The agreement’s small business chapter is designed to streamline customs and support digital trade, giving Black entrepreneurs a foothold in Canada and Mexico. But this opportunity depends on stability: unpredictable tariffs or complex rule changes discourage small firms from scaling.

What We Should Demand

The real question is whether this renegotiation reinforces equity or undermines it. For Black communities, the priorities should be clear:

• Protect labor provisions that keep wages competitive and enforceable.

• Avoid broad tariffs that raise grocery and transportation costs.

• Expand small-business supports that let our firms trade across borders.

The Bottom Line

The fight over USMCA is not just a negotiation between three governments—it’s a negotiation over our paychecks, our grocery bills, and our shot at ownership in the global economy. If we don’t engage, someone else will set the rules for us.